Thursday, 30 January 2014

BUSSINES TRICKS

Having heard many questions being asked about EMFX (most of which have been answered by new Armchair EM Generals using their favourite  tools of rearview mirrorsand extrapolationist rulers), we thought we would ask some much more important questions.


If you had 200 USDs worth of Turkish Lira in your hand would you :-

- Look at them as if someone had placed a turd in your hand screaming "Arrgh!"
- Place it in a Turkish Bank and watch your savings grow by a newly exciting 12% p/a
- Buy corporate bonds in Turkish company Arçelik and display them amusingly on your toilet wall.
- Convert them to USD and find you've now only got $100.
- Buy a small coffee in Bodrum and have to cover the difference in Euros.

If you had 200 USDs worth of Russian Rouble in your hand would you :-

- Look at them as if someone had placed a turd in your hand screaming "Arrgh!"
Donate it to Mr Putin's retirement home for sick puppies.
- Check your wallet for receipts to work out where the hell you were last night.
- Convert them to USDs and find that you have only $20 and a menacing look from Yuri the money changer.
- Buy a small bottle of water in Moscow and pay the difference in Euro.

If you had 200 USDs worth of South African Rand in your hand would you :-

- Look at them as if someone had placed a turd in your hand screaming "Arrgh!"
- Call up Charlize Theron and tell her dinner is on you.
- Convert them into USDs and promptly get arrested by over zealous FBI for money laundering.
Buy shares in a local gold mine and go back to writing comments on Zero Hedge.
- Buy half a gram of Biltong and pay the difference in Euro.

If you had 200 USDs worth of Brazilian Real in your hand would you :-

- Look at them as if someone had placed a turd in your hand screaming "Arrgh!"
- Hide them from your wife.
- Ask if they were like Bitcoin as you've never heard of them.
- Sell them and buy US bonds in nice Mr Gross's fund as he suggests.
- Buy a Ticket to watch the World Cup in Joao's favela bar, paying the difference in drugs.

If you had 200 USDs worth of Indian Rupees in your hand would you :-

- Look at them as if someone had placed a turd in your hand screaming "Arrgh!"
- Have managed to sell insurance to 50 Sky customers in the UK from your cold-call center in Bangalore.
- Find your old rucksack and head off to relive your hippy days in Goa in a cloud of smoke.
- Trade the 3mth vs 6mth INR NDF as a rate hedge and find the spread cost you more than the face (due to market volatility sir sorry).
- Buy a British car company and be given a sweetener by the UK government of £1m to go with it.

If you had 200 USDs worth of Hungarian Florint in your hand would you :-

- Not worry because it's a surplus country 'innit.
- Resurrect the trusty solvency issue and scream "Arrgh!"
- Give them to Kinga the Au Pair to take home to her parents in the mountains.
- Arrange Dave's stag (batchelor) party in Budapest (when there is no Dave)
- Buy a quarter bottle of Tokaj 7 puttonyos and pay the difference in Swiss mortgage bonds.

If you had 200 USDs worth of Chinese Renminbi in your hand would you :-

- Celebrate as it’s going to be worth even more USDs.
- Offer it to a passing group of HF managers who politely decline it already owning 300bio of their own.
- Buy USDs then USTs, not because you listen to PIMCO but because you are SAFE and its what you do anyway.
- Buy 50 LED lightbulbs off Alibaba and find they are rubbish.
- Buy a Louis Vetton bag from Beijing street hawker and borrow the difference from a local official.

And finally -

If you had 200 USDs worth of USDs in your hand would you :-

- Use them as margin to go short of all the above. 
- Buy any of the above as one day you'll need them as a tax haven.
- Rejoice you got a bonus no matter how small.
- Call your friends and ask if you left the other $800 on the bar. 
- Buy a Senator funding the difference by issuing subprime debt that is bought by the Fed. 

Wednesday, 29 January 2014

Why the RBI raised interest rates

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised interest rates at its review on Jan 28. The justification usually given for doing so is inflation.
But at its previous review, when inflation had soared, the RBI was passive and left rates unchanged. Now, with wholesale price inflation (WPI) slowing to 6.16 percent, the RBI was quick to raise the repo rate by 25 bps back to its highest level since the 2008 crisis. Why?
Targeting inflation is surely not the sole object of monetary policy. There have been other considerations, though price stability had precedence. The RBI has recognized the need but did not sufficiently facilitate growth in industry and services. That had been the bone of contention between the RBI and the finance ministry.
The RBI maintained that interest rates alone cannot revive growth because it was suppressed by other obstructive factors, mainly delays in government decisions.
Whatever the reasons, growth in industry never picked up, creating a strange contrast between trends in the two important sectors of the economy. The agricultural sector is generating inflation largely restricted to the food basket; the manufacturing sector is slipping into recession and job losses.
Though focused on inflation, the repo rate hike has been unable to stop or reduce it and has, to an extent, helped only to accelerate recession in industry. The economy has been left hanging between these two poles.
In the meantime, a third outcome has emerged. The rupee came under pressure because, with high domestic inflation, the external value of the currency dropped. In August, the rupee dipped to near 69 to the dollar, though corrected for inflation, it should have been at 60-61 to the dollar.
Rupee stability became and continues to be the major challenge for the RBI and, in spite of exigencies, it has been able to build up foreign exchange reserves, principally from external borrowing. The rupee has consequently developed some muscle, although not strong enough to withstand additional external pressures. Other supporting measures were necessary.
It was against this background that the RBI went in for a rate hike. One reason may be the shift in reference point for inflation, which will now be the consumer price index instead of wholesale price inflation.
The second, though not explicitly expressed, is the need to strengthen the rupee against QE tapering. With the current account deficit at 2.5 percent (down from 4.8 percent) and elevated rates, external borrowing will become more competitive, making the rupee less vulnerable. However, continued food inflation can soon weaken the rupee and render a further reserve build-up more difficult.
Raising the repo rate can help but has obvious limitations, which if exceeded, would have a devastating effect. This is what makes the RBI focus on the urgent need to control CPI inflation, even for supporting the rupee.

Sunday, 26 January 2014

xagusd signals

Silver: This is a good pair to have on the radar for the next week. Silver is consolidating in a wedge which should resolve on the upside. We will be looking to buy a break and retest of the wedge top for a move back towards the 23 region. A break below the wedge support may trigger a selloff to the 18 mark.
mcxtips

Thursday, 23 January 2014





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Scrip Name


Price


Change






Open


High


Low

Update Time


SGX Nifty


6,309.00


-53.00






6,356.00


6,371.00


6,304.00




11:16:43 PM



NIFTY LIVE CHARTS

DOW Futures


16,140.00


-177.00






16,316.00


16,354.00


16,110.00



11:16:43 PM









Wednesday, 22 January 2014

USD/JPY SIGNALS

Probabilities Of Momentum

forex singls for today january 24

    EUR/GBP - Euro / British Pound
    Entry: 0.818
    Stop: 0.82
    Resistances: 0.822 - 0.8195 - 0.818
    Supports: 0.8125 - 0.815 - 0.817

     EUR/AUD - Euro / Australian dollar
    Resistances: 1.6605 - 1.5465 - 1.5395
    Supports: 1.5255 - 1.531 - 1.536

     EUR/CAD - Euro / Canadian Dollar
    Resistances: 1.5765 - 1.5185 - 1.511
    Supports: 1.4875 - 1.4905 - 1.4975

     EUR/CHF - Euro / Swiss Franc
    Resistances: 1.237 - 1.236 - 1.235
    Supports: 1.231 - 1.232 - 1.2335

     USD/CAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
    Resistances: 1.1925 - 1.1215 - 1.1165
    Supports: 1.098 - 1.1005 - 1.106

     GBP/JPY - British Pound / Yen
    Resistances: 174.15 - 173.7 - 173.25
    Supports: 171.15 - 171.9 - 172.75

     USD/CHF - US Dollar / Swiss Franc
    Resistances: 0.9165 - 0.914 - 0.9115
    Supports: 0.905 - 0.9075 - 0.9095

     EUR/JPY - Euro / Yen
    Resistances: 142.6 - 142.05 - 141.7
    Supports: 140.7 - 141 - 141.3

     USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen
    Resistances: 105 - 104.75 - 104.45
    Supports: 103.65 - 103.9 - 104.25

     GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar
    Resistances: 1.667 - 1.6615 - 1.657
    Supports: 1.6455 - 1.6485 - 1.653

     EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar
    Resistances: 1.3625 - 1.36 - 1.357
    Supports: 1.349 - 1.352 - 1.3545

AUD/USD SIGNALS

    AUD/USD - Australian dollar / US Dollar
    Entry: 0.881
    Stop: 0.884
    Resistances: 0.8875 - 0.885 - 0.8815
    Supports: 0.858 - 0.876 - 0.879